Copper Update-10/6/09
Base metals rose strongly as the US$ weakened. Commodity market participants were encouraged by the first rate hike by a industrialised G20 country (Australia) since the world financial crisis. Economic data did not offer much in the way of market direction. Of concern was the news that workers at the Andina unit, of the world’s no.1 copper producer Codelco, voted to reject a preliminary wage offer from the company.
Additionally, an ongoing spectre haunts the Copper Market. Renewed rumors that the greenback will be dropped from energy contract settlements sent currency markets into a negative spin, helping copper futures regain lost ground. Much remains to be seen before a dramatic shift such as this takes hold. Stay tuned.
Uncertainty remains ever present in the Manufacturing Sector near term. Recent communication within in the distribution market indicates that while automotive is busy near term; the housing sector is subdued. Although a bounce has been seen in the past 60 days by some housing participants; it seems confined to after market products. Mill producers are reticent to reduce the currently extended lead times, when doing so would require increased fixed costs near term. If the current build in demand continues into the 1st Qtr, confidence should begin to return to the material production sector, with the resultant reduction in mill lead times.



